KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

34%

22%

15%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

WN2NO 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.25u · WN2 −68.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	33.2%	69.8%	21.8%	42.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	33.2%	69.8%	23.5%	42.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	33.2%	69.8%	23.5%	42.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	33.2%	69.8%	23.5%	42.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	33.2%	69.8%	23.5%	42.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	28.7%	69.8%	23.5%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	28.7%	69.8%	23.5%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	28.7%	69.8%	23.5%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	28.7%	69.8%	23.5%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	28.7%	69.8%	23.5%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	28.7%	61.0%	15.0%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	28.7%	61.0%	15.0%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	28.7%	61.0%	15.0%	36.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	29.5%	60.6%	15.0%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	29.5%	60.6%	15.0%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	15.0%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	15.0%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	18.7%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	18.7%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	18.7%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	29.5%	48.5%	18.7%	36.0%	29.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	18.7%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	18.7%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	18.7%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	18.7%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	15.0%	42.9%	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	85.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	83.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗