KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

35%

29%

26%

15%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

WN2NO 65.2¢Risks 65.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.20u · WN2 −65.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	0.9%	—	37.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	33.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	62.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	53.9%	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	65.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	3.0%	48.6%	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	64.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	24.1%	45.8%	0.1%	17.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	50.7%	7.4%	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	45.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	40.9%	45.4%	13.4%	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	24.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	39.7%	26.1%	8.4%	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	25.1%	25.8%	10.8%	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	7.2%	26.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.2%	26.2%	6.8%	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	17.8%	28.7%	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.4%	28.9%	3.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	12.7%	26.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	17.1%	30.4%	3.2%	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	12.4%	45.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	10.8%	43.9%	2.6%	10.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	17.6%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.5%	43.5%	4.5%	10.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.2%	43.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	86.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	84.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	83.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗