KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

35%

29%

26%

15%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

WN2NO 65.2¢Risks 65.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.20u · WN2 −65.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:01+00:00	52.1%	48.7%	36.7%	32.4%	52.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	52.1%	48.7%	42.1%	32.4%	52.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	52.1%	48.7%	42.1%	32.4%	52.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	52.1%	48.7%	42.1%	32.4%	52.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	42.1%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	42.1%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	42.1%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	42.1%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	42.1%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	36.9%	48.7%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	36.9%	50.0%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	36.9%	50.0%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	57.4%	50.0%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	57.4%	50.0%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	57.4%	50.0%	39.9%	38.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	27.2%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	27.2%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	27.2%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	26.6%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	59.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	37.6%	28.4%	46.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	37.6%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	27.3%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	34.0%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	32.2%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	32.2%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	30.7%	59.9%	32.2%	36.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	27.8%	59.9%	32.2%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	27.8%	59.9%	32.2%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	27.8%	59.9%	32.2%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	27.8%	59.9%	32.2%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	27.8%	59.9%	32.2%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	27.8%	65.2%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	27.8%	65.2%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	27.8%	65.2%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	30.0%	65.2%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	22.6%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	19.5%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	19.5%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	30.1%	54.8%	19.5%	33.0%	33.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	19.5%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	19.5%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	19.5%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	19.5%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	19.5%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	26.4%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	25.7%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	25.7%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	25.7%	54.8%	14.8%	35.2%	29.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	86.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	84.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	83.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗