KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

16%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

WN2NO 90.1¢Risks 45.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	0.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	23.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	49.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	41.0%	—	18.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	35.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	14.5%	32.3%	0.0%	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	39.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	12.4%	36.4%	3.5%	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	31.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	27.0%	30.9%	6.8%	14.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	13.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	25.5%	14.9%	3.8%	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.8%	14.3%	4.9%	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	3.0%	14.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.1%	14.1%	2.7%	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.5%	15.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.0%	15.4%	1.1%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.3%	13.7%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.5%	15.9%	1.0%	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.9%	26.5%	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.0%	25.1%	0.7%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.2%	22.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.9%	23.8%	1.2%	3.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	3.8%	23.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	17%	85.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	82.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗