KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

16%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

WN2NO 90.1¢Risks 45.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:59+00:00	33.5%	39.5%	30.2%	31.2%	19.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	33.5%	22.9%	26.0%	31.2%	19.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	33.5%	22.9%	26.0%	31.2%	19.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	33.5%	22.9%	26.0%	31.2%	19.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	40.9%	22.9%	26.0%	31.2%	19.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	40.9%	22.9%	26.2%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	26.2%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	26.2%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	26.2%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	22.4%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	22.4%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	40.9%	24.9%	22.4%	31.2%	19.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	22.4%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	22.4%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	22.4%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	22.4%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	22.4%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	37.4%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:02+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	23.0%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	27.5%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	27.5%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	38.1%	24.9%	27.5%	22.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	27.5%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	27.5%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	27.5%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	27.5%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	27.5%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	24.0%	24.9%	24.7%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	24.0%	21.6%	24.7%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	24.0%	21.6%	24.7%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	24.7%	27.2%	35.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	42.6%	22.1%	24.7%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	24.7%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	24.7%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	28.9%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	28.9%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	28.9%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	42.6%	21.6%	28.9%	27.2%	35.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	28.9%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	28.9%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	28.9%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	28.9%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	16.3%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:50+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	23.3%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	30.2%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	52.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	16.7%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	16.7%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	16.7%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	16.7%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	16.7%	21.5%	13.7%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	16.7%	21.5%	13.7%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	16.7%	21.5%	13.7%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	16.7%	21.5%	13.7%	23.4%	46.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	15.2%	21.5%	13.7%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	13.7%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	13.7%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	13.7%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	33.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	33.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	33.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%	33.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	21.1%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	15.7%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	18.4%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	17.1%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	17.1%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	18.2%	22.7%	17.1%	24.4%	33.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	17.1%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	17.1%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	17.1%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	17.1%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	15.2%	22.7%	17.1%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	15.2%	31.6%	9.8%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	15.2%	31.6%	9.8%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	15.2%	31.6%	9.8%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	16.8%	31.6%	9.8%	20.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	16.9%	31.6%	9.9%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	9.9%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	9.9%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	9.9%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	8.2%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	8.2%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	16.9%	24.8%	8.2%	20.0%	20.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	8.2%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	8.2%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	8.2%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	8.2%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	8.2%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	14.3%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	5.7%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	6.3%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	6.3%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	6.3%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	13.8%	24.8%	6.3%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	10.4%	24.8%	6.3%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	10.4%	24.8%	6.3%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	10.4%	24.8%	6.3%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	10.4%	24.8%	6.3%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	10.4%	24.8%	6.3%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	10.4%	18.0%	2.7%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	10.4%	18.0%	2.7%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	10.4%	18.0%	2.7%	15.2%	9.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	10.7%	18.8%	2.7%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	10.7%	18.8%	2.7%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	2.7%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	2.7%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	3.8%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	3.8%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	3.8%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	3.8%	15.1%	9.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	3.8%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	3.8%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	3.8%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	3.8%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	12.6%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	8.2%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	8.2%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	13.0%	11.8%	8.2%	19.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	16.2%	11.8%	8.2%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	16.2%	11.8%	8.2%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	16.2%	11.8%	8.2%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	16.2%	11.8%	8.2%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	16.2%	11.8%	8.2%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	16.2%	16.7%	3.1%	16.5%	4.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	16.2%	16.7%	3.1%	16.5%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	17%	85.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	82.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗