KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

44%

36%

32%

18%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

WN2NO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.20u · WN2 −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	69.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	68.2%	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	60.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	42.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	43.3%	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	45.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	31.7%	36.2%	0.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	35.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	52.2%	45.6%	13.2%	31.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	48.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	37.2%	35.8%	11.8%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	34.5%	43.6%	8.7%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	45.1%	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	33.0%	43.4%	7.1%	23.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	16.2%	44.9%	—	22.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	32.2%	46.5%	10.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	31.0%	46.4%	—	22.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	28.9%	49.1%	10.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	35.2%	48.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	33.9%	42.3%	9.4%	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	29.9%	49.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	86.7°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	84.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	84.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗