KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

23%

22%

19%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

WN2NO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.10u · WN2 −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	57.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	56.3%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	55.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	48.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	30.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	30.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	20.4%	24.1%	0.0%	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	23.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	37.8%	31.7%	6.9%	19.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	34.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	23.9%	22.8%	5.8%	17.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	25.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	21.2%	28.8%	3.9%	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	29.7%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	19.5%	27.9%	3.0%	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	7.8%	28.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	18.4%	29.9%	4.3%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	17.2%	29.4%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.4%	31.4%	4.3%	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	19.6%	30.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.3%	24.7%	3.5%	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	15.2%	29.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	87.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	84.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗