KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

45%

37%

34%

21%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

WN2NO 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.90u · WN2 −66.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	53.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	37.9%	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	48.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	0.8%	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.0%	28.8%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	43.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	47.9%	26.3%	0.5%	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	30.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	43.4%	35.0%	16.1%	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	35.8%	41.7%	10.7%	20.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	44.5%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	30.9%	42.9%	9.7%	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	47.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	24.5%	44.2%	9.3%	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	13.7%	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	30.7%	36.3%	7.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	26.4%	34.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	87.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	86.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗