KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

27%

23%

23%

14%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

WN2NO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · WN2 −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	47.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	32.4%	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	44.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	42.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	36.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.5%	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	30.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	23.3%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	37.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	40.9%	20.9%	0.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	36.4%	28.5%	12.0%	21.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	31.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	28.9%	34.4%	7.6%	15.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	37.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	24.2%	35.2%	6.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	39.5%	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	18.4%	36.1%	6.3%	10.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	9.5%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	23.4%	28.4%	4.7%	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	19.6%	26.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	40%	86.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	84.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	86.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗