KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

27%

23%

23%

14%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

WN2NO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · WN2 −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	27.1%	51.7%	25.2%	33.2%	63.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	27.1%	51.7%	24.6%	33.2%	63.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	27.1%	51.7%	24.6%	33.2%	63.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	27.1%	51.7%	24.6%	33.2%	63.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.6%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.6%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.6%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.6%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.6%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.7%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.7%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	30.2%	51.7%	24.7%	35.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	28.3%	51.7%	24.7%	36.0%	60.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	28.3%	51.7%	24.7%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	24.7%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	24.7%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	24.7%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	20.2%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	20.2%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	28.3%	43.5%	20.2%	35.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	20.2%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	20.2%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	20.2%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	20.2%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	20.2%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	26.5%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	19.6%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	24.0%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	24.0%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	24.0%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	27.7%	43.5%	24.0%	33.6%	54.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	24.6%	43.5%	24.0%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	24.6%	43.5%	24.0%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	24.6%	43.5%	24.0%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	24.6%	43.5%	24.0%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	24.6%	43.5%	24.0%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	24.6%	33.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	24.6%	33.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	24.6%	33.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	25.9%	33.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	25.9%	33.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.9%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.3%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.3%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.3%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	25.9%	23.4%	15.3%	25.6%	44.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	15.3%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	15.3%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	15.3%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	15.3%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	27.2%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	27.2%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	27.2%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	27.2%	23.4%	13.7%	23.4%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	40%	86.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	84.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	86.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗