KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

22%

21%

15%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

WN2NO 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.65u · WN2 −80.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	42.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	27.3%	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	30.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.3%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	18.4%	—	18.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	30.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	34.3%	16.2%	0.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	29.7%	22.6%	8.7%	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	25.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	22.8%	27.7%	5.2%	11.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	29.9%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	18.4%	28.1%	4.5%	9.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	31.9%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	13.4%	28.6%	4.1%	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	22.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	17.2%	21.4%	2.9%	9.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	14.0%	19.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	33%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	86.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	87.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 90°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗