KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

52%

50%

50%

48%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

AIFSNO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.70u · AIFS −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	58.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	48.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	53.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	46.8%	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	48.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	48.0%	—	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	41.6%	45.1%	0.2%	30.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	35.0%	47.8%	26.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	35.1%	42.4%	33.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	43.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	31.6%	44.4%	30.9%	26.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	40.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	87.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	85.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	85.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗