KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

39%

36%

33%

31%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.0¢Risks 8.99u

WN2NO 64.0¢Risks 16.01u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.01u · WN2 −16.01u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	47.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	34.2%	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	35.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	34.8%	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	37.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	28.6%	31.7%	0.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	22.6%	33.7%	15.6%	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	22.2%	28.3%	20.5%	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	28.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	18.9%	29.5%	18.4%	14.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	25.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	87.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	85.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	39%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	85.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗