KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

27%

26%

23%

20%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	28.4%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	28.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	23.0%	25.7%	0.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	17.5%	27.2%	11.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	16.9%	22.2%	15.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	14.0%	23.0%	13.6%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	20.1%	17.8%	12.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	9.2%	18.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	19.0%	19.0%	10.1%	38.8%	9.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	87.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	84.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	85.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	86.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗