KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

27%

26%

23%

20%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	30.7%	45.2%	28.5%	28.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	30.7%	45.2%	31.2%	28.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	30.7%	45.2%	31.2%	28.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	30.7%	45.2%	31.2%	28.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	30.7%	45.2%	31.2%	28.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	25.3%	45.2%	31.2%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	25.3%	45.2%	31.2%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	25.3%	45.2%	31.2%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	25.3%	45.2%	31.2%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	25.3%	45.2%	31.2%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	25.3%	29.7%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	25.3%	29.7%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	25.3%	29.7%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	26.5%	30.2%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	26.5%	30.2%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	26.5%	20.3%	24.7%	25.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	24.7%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	24.7%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	24.7%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	24.7%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	25.3%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	25.9%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	25.9%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	25.9%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	25.9%	20.3%	23.3%	27.2%	42.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	87.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	84.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	85.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	86.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗