KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

24%

20%

16%

12%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.5¢Risks 9.75u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 40.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.25u · EPS −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	35.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	23.1%	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	23.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	23.3%	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	18.0%	20.4%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	20.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	13.2%	21.5%	8.4%	10.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	12.5%	16.9%	11.4%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	16.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	10.0%	17.4%	9.7%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	14.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	33%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	85.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	85.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	87.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗