KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

24%

20%

16%

12%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.5¢Risks 9.75u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 40.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.25u · EPS −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:50+00:00	23.3%	39.4%	26.6%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	23.3%	39.4%	26.6%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	23.3%	39.4%	26.6%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	23.3%	39.4%	26.6%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	23.3%	39.4%	26.6%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	23.3%	36.9%	25.2%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	23.3%	36.9%	25.2%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	23.3%	36.9%	25.2%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	26.0%	36.9%	25.2%	22.9%	1.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	26.0%	36.9%	25.3%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	25.3%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	25.3%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	25.3%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	24.1%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	24.1%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	26.0%	30.2%	24.1%	22.8%	2.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	24.1%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	24.1%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	24.1%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	24.1%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	24.1%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	23.3%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	22.3%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	24.7%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	24.7%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	24.7%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	24.9%	30.2%	24.7%	23.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	19.8%	30.2%	24.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	19.8%	30.2%	24.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	19.8%	30.2%	24.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	19.8%	30.2%	24.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	19.8%	30.2%	24.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	19.8%	17.3%	18.5%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	19.8%	17.3%	18.5%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	19.8%	17.3%	18.5%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	20.8%	17.9%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	20.8%	17.9%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	20.8%	11.0%	18.4%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	18.4%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	18.4%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	18.4%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	18.4%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	17.3%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	20.8%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	20.8%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	20.3%	11.0%	20.8%	22.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	20.8%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	20.8%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	20.8%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	20.8%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	19.8%	11.0%	20.8%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	19.8%	11.7%	16.5%	24.5%	27.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	19.8%	11.7%	16.5%	24.5%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	33%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	85.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	85.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	87.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗