KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

21%

18%

18%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.6¢Risks 13.60u

ICONNO 86.4¢Risks 86.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.40u · ICON −86.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	30.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	20.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	24.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	18.5%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	18.4%	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	13.7%	15.8%	0.0%	8.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	16.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	9.6%	16.5%	5.9%	7.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	9.0%	12.5%	8.1%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	6.9%	12.7%	6.7%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	10.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	88.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	86.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	84.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	85.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	68.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗