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KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
26%
WN2
21%
HRES
18%
AIFS
18%
ICON
2%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 13.6¢Risks 13.60u
VS
ICONNO 86.4¢Risks 86.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.40u · ICON −86.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:0018.3%25.7%21.0%18.5%1.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0018.3%25.7%21.0%18.5%1.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0018.3%25.7%21.0%18.5%1.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0018.3%25.7%21.0%18.5%1.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0018.3%25.7%21.0%18.5%1.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend59%91.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%88.8°F2.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%86.1°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES18%84.7°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single18%85.3°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON2%68.9°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗