KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

44%

40%

35%

25%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

HRESNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.10u · HRES −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	35.2%	—	38.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	46.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	24.6%	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.1%	29.4%	—	23.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	29.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	19.9%	22.4%	0.2%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	27.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	25.4%	25.4%	19.4%	19.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	15.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	51%	85.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	85.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	84.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	81.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗