KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

22%

21%

20%

19%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.3¢Risks 14.15u

EPSNO 71.7¢Risks 35.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.85u · EPS −35.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	24.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	20.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	28.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	12.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	14.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	14.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.5%	9.9%	0.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	12.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	11.3%	11.3%	7.9%	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	85.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	83.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	86.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗