KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

22%

21%

20%

19%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.3¢Risks 14.15u

EPSNO 71.7¢Risks 35.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.85u · EPS −35.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	26.0%	28.0%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	26.0%	28.0%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	26.0%	28.0%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	23.8%	28.0%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	23.8%	28.0%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	18.9%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	20.6%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	20.6%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	20.6%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	23.8%	19.1%	20.6%	14.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	20.2%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	20.2%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	20.2%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	20.2%	19.1%	20.6%	21.5%	37.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	85.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	83.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	86.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗