KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

68%

66%

54%

20%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.85u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.15u · ICON −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	9.3%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	4.3%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	27.7%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	51.4%	52.8%	5.2%	—	71.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	86.1%	72.8%	64.3%	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	53.0%	80.0%	75.5%	—	73.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	64.1%	7.2%	50.0%	—	64.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	55.0%	72.1%	40.9%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	28.1%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	38.8%	64.6%	41.3%	—	36.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	37.6%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	40.0%	72.6%	31.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	40.6%	67.4%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	45.1%	72.1%	42.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	44.0%	70.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	45.9%	70.6%	44.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	38.5%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	27.3%	69.9%	40.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	19.0%	64.3%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	19.1%	69.0%	44.2%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	29.3%	71.7%	45.2%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	35.4%	74.4%	42.6%	27.6%	36.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	36.1%	75.2%	43.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	29.5%	73.9%	40.7%	25.1%	34.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	48.6%	74.7%	44.4%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	62.8%	82.8%	47.1%	60.1%	48.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	61.9%	85.6%	44.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	59.4%	84.8%	43.7%	66.8%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	80.8%	87.7%	58.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	65.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
WeatherNext 2	68%	64.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0992
IFS Ensemble	66%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1156
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	54%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2088
ICON	20%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6320

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗