KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

68%

66%

54%

20%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.85u

ICONNO 54.2¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.15u · ICON −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:23+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	65.0%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	65.0%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	68.3%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	68.3%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	68.3%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	68.8%	78.6%	68.3%	50.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:33+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	68.3%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	69.6%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	53.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	67.1%	78.6%	71.4%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	67.1%	80.8%	69.7%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	67.1%	80.8%	69.7%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	67.1%	80.8%	69.7%	48.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	65.3%	80.8%	69.7%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	65.3%	80.7%	69.7%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	69.7%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	69.7%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	69.7%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	65.3%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	17.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	17.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	17.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	67.4%	51.9%	17.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	67.4%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	66.2%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	66.3%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	74.1%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	74.1%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	67.1%	75.4%	74.1%	53.9%	17.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	64.8%	75.4%	74.1%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	64.8%	75.4%	74.1%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	64.8%	75.4%	74.1%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	64.8%	75.4%	74.1%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	64.8%	75.4%	74.1%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	64.8%	76.1%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	64.8%	76.1%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	64.8%	76.1%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	63.8%	76.1%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	63.9%	75.6%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	72.0%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	68.5%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	68.5%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	68.5%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	63.9%	66.0%	68.5%	55.3%	23.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:04+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	64.8%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	71.2%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	71.2%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	71.2%	66.0%	68.5%	54.3%	20.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	65.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
WeatherNext 2	68%	64.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0992
IFS Ensemble	66%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1156
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	54%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2088
ICON	20%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6320

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗