KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

16%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

AIFSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.20u · AIFS −85.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	6.5%	0.1%	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	28.5%	14.8%	10.0%	—	17.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	5.0%	18.9%	15.1%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.5%	0.1%	3.6%	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.9%	9.7%	1.7%	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.2%	5.4%	1.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.0%	7.0%	0.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	4.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	5.4%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	3.8%	0.7%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.6%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2088
IFS Ensemble	26%	70.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0650
ICON	16%	66.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0262
IFS HRES	8%	64.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0072
WeatherNext 2	4%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0018
AIFS Single	4%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗