KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

16%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.80u

AIFSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +85.20u · AIFS −85.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:42+00:00	27.7%	26.7%	6.5%	45.0%	33.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	27.7%	26.7%	6.5%	45.0%	33.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	27.7%	26.7%	5.8%	45.0%	33.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	27.7%	26.7%	5.8%	45.0%	33.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	27.7%	26.7%	5.8%	45.0%	33.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	5.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	5.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	5.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	5.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	5.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:36+00:00	15.9%	26.7%	3.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	15.9%	23.1%	3.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	15.9%	23.1%	3.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	5.6%	23.1%	3.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	5.7%	23.2%	3.8%	41.6%	52.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00	7.4%	23.6%	8.4%	16.8%	23.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	7.4%	23.6%	9.8%	16.8%	23.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	7.4%	23.6%	9.8%	16.8%	23.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	7.4%	23.6%	9.8%	16.8%	23.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	7.4%	23.6%	9.8%	16.8%	23.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:48+00:00	8.3%	23.6%	9.8%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	8.3%	23.6%	9.8%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	8.3%	23.6%	9.8%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	8.3%	23.6%	9.8%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	8.3%	24.7%	6.1%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	8.3%	24.7%	6.1%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	8.3%	24.7%	6.1%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	8.3%	24.7%	6.1%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	7.9%	24.7%	6.3%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	6.3%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:43+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	6.3%	14.9%	21.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	6.3%	15.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	7.9%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	16.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	16.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	16.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	5.4%	15.3%	16.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	5.4%	8.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	4.2%	8.5%	16.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	4.2%	8.5%	16.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	9.8%	25.5%	4.2%	8.5%	16.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.1%	25.5%	4.2%	8.5%	16.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	4.1%	25.5%	4.2%	8.5%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2088
IFS Ensemble	26%	70.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0650
ICON	16%	66.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0262
IFS HRES	8%	64.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0072
WeatherNext 2	4%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0018
AIFS Single	4%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗