KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

79%

63%

60%

37%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

ICONNO 37.3¢Risks 37.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.35u · ICON −37.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00	67.6%	66.3%	76.5%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	67.6%	63.3%	76.5%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	67.6%	63.3%	76.5%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	67.6%	63.3%	70.9%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	67.6%	63.3%	70.9%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	67.6%	63.3%	70.9%	61.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	72.0%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	70.9%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	88.5%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	88.5%	59.6%	36.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	79.2%	63.3%	88.5%	59.6%	36.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	68.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗