KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

79%

63%

60%

37%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

ICONNO 37.3¢Risks 37.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.35u · ICON −37.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	30.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	3.4%	83.7%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	89.1%	87.4%	4.2%	—	75.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	72.2%	83.5%	38.5%	—	70.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	69.7%	4.6%	56.1%	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	46.8%	3.4%	39.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	43.4%	67.8%	18.9%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	18.4%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	28.4%	73.8%	15.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	49.1%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	74.9%	48.2%	—	39.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	33.5%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	30.4%	62.4%	41.3%	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	24.9%	58.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	26.8%	63.1%	49.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	27.9%	67.4%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	37.1%	72.7%	53.3%	0.0%	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	35.7%	75.1%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	32.0%	74.0%	39.6%	39.6%	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	51.2%	72.7%	53.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	63.4%	71.3%	50.0%	—	43.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	55.1%	68.7%	47.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	51.3%	71.6%	48.7%	52.7%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	58.3%	73.5%	54.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	73.2%	78.8%	54.3%	81.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	68.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗