KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

61%

48%

24%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

ICONNO 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.70u · ICON −56.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	2.3%	79.2%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	85.5%	83.4%	2.9%	—	69.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	65.7%	78.5%	31.7%	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	62.7%	3.0%	48.5%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	39.0%	2.2%	32.3%	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	35.3%	59.9%	13.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	13.2%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	21.4%	66.2%	10.5%	—	30.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	40.2%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	43.6%	67.0%	39.1%	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	25.3%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	22.5%	52.9%	32.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	17.7%	48.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	19.0%	53.1%	38.8%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	19.8%	57.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	27.3%	62.9%	42.4%	0.0%	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	25.8%	65.4%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	22.4%	63.7%	28.9%	28.9%	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	39.3%	61.9%	41.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	51.2%	59.9%	37.7%	—	32.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	42.3%	56.4%	34.9%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	38.1%	59.3%	35.6%	39.4%	26.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	44.4%	61.0%	40.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	60.1%	66.9%	40.0%	70.7%	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	60.5%	54.5%	42.5%	—	38.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	53.2%	65.4%	42.1%	81.9%	48.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	80.8%	74.6%	61.4%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	69.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1475
AIFS Single	61%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1544
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	48%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2694
ICON	24%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5776

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗