KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

61%

48%

24%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

ICONNO 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.70u · ICON −56.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:33+00:00	58.6%	66.4%	54.3%	51.6%	58.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	58.6%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	58.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	58.6%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	58.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	58.6%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	58.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	57.4%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	57.4%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	57.4%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	57.4%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	57.4%	66.4%	58.5%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	57.4%	63.1%	52.4%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	57.4%	63.1%	52.4%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	57.4%	63.1%	52.4%	51.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	57.4%	63.1%	52.4%	46.4%	27.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	57.4%	63.1%	52.4%	46.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	62.8%	56.0%	57.1%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	62.8%	56.0%	60.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	62.8%	56.0%	60.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	62.8%	56.0%	60.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	61.6%	56.0%	60.5%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	61.6%	56.0%	60.5%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	61.6%	56.0%	60.5%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	61.6%	56.0%	60.5%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	61.6%	56.0%	60.5%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	61.6%	61.8%	62.6%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	61.6%	61.8%	62.6%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	61.6%	61.8%	62.6%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	60.7%	61.8%	62.6%	48.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	60.7%	61.6%	62.6%	48.1%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	69.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1475
AIFS Single	61%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1544
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	48%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2694
ICON	24%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5776

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗