KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

12%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.8¢Risks 2.20u

ICONNO 91.2¢Risks 22.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.80u · ICON −22.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.1%	41.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	50.0%	46.5%	0.1%	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	24.3%	37.8%	5.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	20.5%	0.1%	11.8%	—	17.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	6.9%	0.1%	4.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.1%	15.7%	0.9%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.7%	18.4%	0.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.5%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.1%	17.2%	4.8%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.8%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.3%	8.2%	2.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.8%	6.0%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.8%	7.1%	3.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.7%	8.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.2%	9.4%	3.3%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	9.7%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	8.1%	1.1%	1.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.9%	6.6%	2.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.3%	5.2%	1.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	3.7%	1.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	3.7%	0.9%	1.1%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	3.5%	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.7%	4.0%	0.7%	5.1%	1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	2.4%	0.5%	7.1%	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	3.4%	1.4%	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
IFS Ensemble	12%	70.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	12%	69.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0154
IFS HRES	12%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0151
WeatherNext 2	6%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0035
ICON	5%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗