KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

12%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.8¢Risks 2.20u

ICONNO 91.2¢Risks 22.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.80u · ICON −22.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	17.3%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	46.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	23.6%	35.7%	20.8%
2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	23.6%	17.5%	20.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	16.1%	12.9%	10.8%	17.5%	20.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	16.1%	12.9%	10.8%	17.5%	20.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	16.1%	12.9%	10.8%	17.5%	20.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	14.7%	12.9%	10.8%	17.5%	20.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	14.8%	12.9%	10.7%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	10.7%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	10.7%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	10.7%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	7.9%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	7.9%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	14.8%	12.8%	7.9%	17.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.9%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.9%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.9%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.9%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.9%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	11.0%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.6%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.2%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.2%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	11.4%	12.8%	7.2%	10.6%	19.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	7.2%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	7.2%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	7.2%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	7.2%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	5.9%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	11.6%	12.8%	5.9%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	11.6%	12.4%	5.9%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	11.6%	12.4%	5.9%	12.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	12.4%	12.4%	5.9%	12.3%	5.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	12.4%	12.4%	5.9%	12.3%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
IFS Ensemble	12%	70.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	12%	69.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0154
IFS HRES	12%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0151
WeatherNext 2	6%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0035
ICON	5%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗