KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

42%

32%

26%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.1¢Risks 35.15u

ICONNO 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.85u · ICON −64.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.1%	35.5%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	43.0%	39.6%	0.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	18.9%	31.0%	3.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	15.5%	0.1%	8.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.7%	0.0%	3.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.3%	11.2%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.0%	13.1%	0.3%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.4%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.8%	11.9%	2.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.7%	5.1%	1.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	3.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	4.2%	1.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	4.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.6%	5.6%	1.7%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	5.7%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	4.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	3.5%	1.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	2.6%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.8%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	1.8%	0.3%	2.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	63%	77.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	74.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	72.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	72.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	61.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗