WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
63%
AIFS
42%
EPS
32%
WN2
26%
ICON
7%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 35.1¢Risks 35.15u
VS
ICONNO 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.85u · ICON −64.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 63.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00IFS HRES: 63.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS HRES: 63.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 63.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 63.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:38+00:0041.5%31.7%25.5%63.0%7.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:0041.5%31.7%25.5%63.0%7.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:0041.5%31.7%25.5%63.0%7.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0041.5%31.7%25.5%63.0%7.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0041.5%31.7%25.5%63.0%7.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES63%77.6°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend55%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%74.3°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%72.5°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%72.0°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
ICON7%61.2°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗