KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

25%

12%

10%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

AIFSNO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.80u · AIFS −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	2.3%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.0%	29.4%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	36.2%	33.0%	0.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	14.4%	24.9%	2.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	11.4%	0.0%	5.8%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.0%	0.0%	2.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	7.7%	0.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.5%	9.0%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.0%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	7.9%	1.7%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	3.0%	0.8%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	2.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	2.4%	0.9%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	2.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	3.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	3.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.2%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
ICON	35%	73.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1232
IFS HRES	25%	72.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0630
WeatherNext 2	12%	71.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0154
IFS Ensemble	10%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0094
AIFS Single	9%	69.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗