KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

EPSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.45u · EPS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:39+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.7%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.7%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.7%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.7%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.7%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	9.9%	7.7%	3.0%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	9.9%	5.6%	3.0%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	9.9%	5.6%	3.0%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	4.0%	5.6%	3.0%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	4.1%	5.6%	3.1%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00	4.1%	5.6%	3.1%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	3.1%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	1.5%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	1.5%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	1.5%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	1.5%	26.9%	2.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	1.5%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	1.5%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	1.5%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	1.5%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	1.6%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	0.9%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	2.0%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	2.0%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	2.0%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	2.0%	8.5%	40.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:48+00:00	2.9%	5.8%	2.0%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	2.9%	5.8%	2.0%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	2.9%	5.8%	2.0%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	2.9%	5.8%	2.0%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:43+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.8%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	15.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	13.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	13.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	13.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.7%	8.0%	13.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.7%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%	7.6%	13.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	73.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0188
NWS forecast	10%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	72.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0058
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0015
AIFS Single	1%	69.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	1%	71.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗