KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

95%

72%

66%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	90.7%	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	3.1%	93.4%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	78.6%	72.5%	2.2%	—	77.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	80.6%	67.7%	62.3%	—	63.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	52.3%	85.4%	68.4%	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	62.5%	90.0%	40.5%	—	61.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	77.5%	89.2%	63.1%	—	65.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	29.6%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	60.4%	83.3%	68.6%	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	53.6%	73.6%	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	54.6%	65.3%	71.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	53.8%	70.8%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	63.4%	78.2%	62.4%	—	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	66.5%	81.0%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	64.1%	74.9%	54.1%	0.0%	51.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	65.5%	75.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	66.9%	88.6%	13.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	52.2%	85.2%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	64.8%	89.5%	63.7%	0.0%	46.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	76.6%	89.2%	69.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	72.4%	92.5%	19.1%	51.2%	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	48.7%	85.0%	34.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.9%	87.4%	20.0%	71.6%	47.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	71.2%	86.8%	65.0%	—	56.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	87.0%	93.2%	85.4%	96.0%	72.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	92.0%	82.8%	—	71.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗