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KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
95%
HRES
72%
EPS
66%
ICON
60%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u
VS
ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:0087.9%66.2%92.6%72.3%23.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0087.9%66.2%92.6%72.3%23.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0087.9%66.2%95.4%72.3%23.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0087.9%66.2%95.4%72.3%23.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0087.9%66.2%95.4%72.3%23.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0095.2%66.2%95.4%72.3%60.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0095.2%66.2%95.4%72.3%60.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0095.2%66.2%95.4%72.3%60.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0095.2%66.2%95.4%72.3%60.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%73.4°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
AIFS Single95%73.6°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%70.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%70.1°F3.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON60%69.4°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend56%69.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗