KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

52%

46%

10%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

ICONNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.40u · ICON −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	84.3%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	71.6%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	87.9%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	67.0%	59.7%	0.9%	—	65.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	69.0%	53.6%	47.8%	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	74.9%	53.8%	—	38.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	46.8%	81.1%	26.1%	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	63.1%	79.3%	46.7%	—	49.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	16.7%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	43.0%	70.1%	51.7%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	35.9%	57.1%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	36.4%	47.2%	53.7%	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	35.2%	52.8%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	44.2%	61.5%	43.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	47.0%	64.7%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	43.9%	56.1%	34.0%	0.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	44.7%	56.3%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	45.6%	74.5%	4.7%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	30.5%	68.5%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	41.9%	74.9%	40.8%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	54.8%	73.7%	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	48.8%	79.2%	6.7%	27.6%	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	24.8%	65.1%	15.0%	—	20.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	12.7%	68.1%	6.5%	46.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	44.4%	66.2%	37.7%	—	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	65.5%	77.8%	62.8%	84.6%	44.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	74.0%	57.5%	—	42.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗