KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

52%

46%

10%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

ICONNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.40u · ICON −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:18+00:00	73.6%	65.4%	65.0%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	73.6%	65.4%	80.5%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	73.6%	65.4%	80.5%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	73.6%	65.4%	80.5%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	73.6%	65.4%	80.5%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	58.8%	65.4%	80.5%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	58.8%	65.4%	80.5%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	58.8%	65.4%	80.5%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	58.8%	65.4%	80.5%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	58.8%	57.6%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	58.8%	57.6%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	58.8%	57.6%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	58.8%	57.6%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	67.1%	57.4%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:58+00:00	67.1%	57.4%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	67.1%	54.3%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	67.1%	54.3%	70.8%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	67.1%	54.3%	62.6%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	67.1%	54.3%	62.6%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	67.1%	54.3%	62.6%	47.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	62.6%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	62.6%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	62.6%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	62.6%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	62.6%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	58.8%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	58.9%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	66.3%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	66.3%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	62.6%	54.3%	66.3%	42.3%	38.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	52.0%	54.3%	66.3%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	52.0%	54.3%	66.3%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	52.0%	54.3%	66.3%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	52.0%	54.3%	66.3%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	52.0%	54.3%	66.3%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	52.0%	45.9%	56.8%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	52.0%	45.9%	56.8%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	52.0%	45.9%	56.8%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	60.0%	45.9%	56.8%	32.3%	34.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	60.0%	45.9%	56.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	56.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	56.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	56.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	59.5%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	59.5%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	60.0%	45.8%	59.5%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	59.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	59.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	59.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	59.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	59.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	67.7%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	74.6%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	74.6%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	74.6%	45.8%	77.5%	52.1%	9.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗