KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

21%

21%

16%

16%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

HRESNO 73.1¢Risks 73.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.10u · HRES −73.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	64.7%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	46.8%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.2%	68.8%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	39.6%	32.3%	0.1%	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	40.6%	26.0%	21.5%	—	22.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	13.8%	46.2%	25.1%	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	18.9%	53.2%	7.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	30.8%	49.2%	17.8%	—	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	3.4%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	14.6%	36.3%	20.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	10.3%	23.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	10.2%	16.0%	20.3%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	9.2%	19.0%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	13.1%	24.7%	12.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	14.0%	26.5%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	11.8%	19.0%	7.4%	0.0%	6.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	11.6%	18.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	11.4%	33.1%	0.3%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	5.1%	25.8%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	31.0%	8.1%	0.0%	3.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	13.9%	28.3%	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.0%	33.1%	0.3%	3.3%	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.4%	18.2%	1.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.6%	19.1%	0.2%	7.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.2%	16.4%	4.3%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	14.6%	24.5%	13.0%	33.1%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	19.2%	9.2%	—	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	71.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	71.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	70.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗