KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

21%

21%

16%

16%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

HRESNO 73.1¢Risks 73.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.10u · HRES −73.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	43.9%	25.2%	35.3%	26.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	43.9%	25.2%	33.4%	26.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	43.9%	25.2%	33.4%	26.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	43.9%	25.2%	33.4%	26.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	39.9%	25.2%	33.4%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	39.9%	25.2%	33.4%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	39.9%	25.2%	33.4%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	39.9%	25.2%	33.4%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	39.9%	25.2%	33.4%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	39.9%	27.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	39.9%	27.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	39.9%	27.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	36.3%	27.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	36.3%	27.9%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	35.0%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	26.7%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	26.7%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	26.7%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	36.3%	20.6%	26.7%	25.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	26.7%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	26.7%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	26.7%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	26.7%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:04+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	31.2%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	38.1%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	38.1%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	38.1%	20.6%	21.2%	15.7%	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	71.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	71.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	70.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗