KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

15%

12%

10%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.0¢Risks 9.50u

EPSNO 81.0¢Risks 40.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.50u · EPS −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	52.5%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	34.2%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.1%	56.1%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	26.9%	20.9%	0.0%	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	27.2%	15.6%	12.4%	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	7.0%	31.6%	14.6%	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	37.5%	3.3%	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	17.8%	33.0%	9.0%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	1.2%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	6.8%	21.4%	10.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	4.3%	12.1%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	4.1%	7.3%	9.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	3.6%	8.8%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.4%	12.1%	5.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.7%	13.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.4%	8.2%	2.5%	0.0%	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.2%	7.6%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	16.2%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.4%	11.2%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.5%	14.0%	2.4%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.5%	11.9%	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.8%	14.4%	0.0%	0.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	6.0%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	6.1%	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.3%	4.7%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.7%	7.8%	3.2%	12.2%	1.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.1%	1.8%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	73.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	72.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗