KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

39%

17%

16%

11%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

AIFSNO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.50u · AIFS −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	42.6%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	16.6%	12.2%	0.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	16.5%	8.4%	6.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.2%	19.5%	7.6%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.7%	23.6%	1.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.0%	19.5%	3.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.4%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.7%	10.9%	4.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	5.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.4%	2.8%	3.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.1%	3.4%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.8%	4.9%	1.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.9%	5.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	2.8%	0.7%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	6.2%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	3.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	4.8%	0.5%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	3.7%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	4.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	1.6%	0.5%	2.9%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	57%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	76.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	74.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	73.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	71.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗