KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

39%

17%

16%

11%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

AIFSNO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.50u · AIFS −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:48+00:00	2.6%	29.7%	11.2%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	2.6%	29.7%	11.2%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	2.6%	29.7%	11.2%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	2.6%	29.7%	11.2%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	2.6%	17.2%	7.9%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	2.6%	17.2%	7.9%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	2.6%	17.2%	7.9%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	2.6%	17.2%	7.9%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	8.0%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	8.0%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:43+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	8.0%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	8.0%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	4.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	46.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	36.4%	46.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	4.2%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	11.0%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	11.0%	17.2%	15.8%	38.8%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	57%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	76.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	74.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	73.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	71.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗