KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

30%

27%

25%

17%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.3¢Risks 27.25u

HRESNO 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.75u · HRES −72.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	8.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	33.6%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.9%	28.8%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	36.9%	38.2%	0.1%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	24.3%	9.0%	14.8%	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	37.2%	2.8%	28.3%	—	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	25.5%	38.2%	33.7%	—	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	21.9%	37.7%	20.1%	—	29.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	4.9%	41.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	27.7%	49.1%	25.5%	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	25.7%	52.7%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	21.6%	46.3%	21.6%	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	28.4%	49.0%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	30.4%	46.1%	30.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	24.9%	55.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	15.7%	46.9%	25.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	30.7%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	42.4%	46.7%	21.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	19.0%	40.0%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	27.0%	39.6%	17.5%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	29.3%	35.9%	11.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	38.9%	36.5%	22.7%	52.5%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	38.5%	19.1%	—	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	75.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	74.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗