KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

30%

27%

25%

17%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.3¢Risks 27.25u

HRESNO 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.75u · HRES −72.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	51.1%	33.0%	36.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	62.6%	33.0%	36.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	62.6%	33.0%	36.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	62.6%	33.0%	36.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	62.6%	33.0%	36.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	62.6%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	62.6%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	62.6%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	62.6%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	52.4%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	52.4%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	52.4%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	52.4%	32.7%	36.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	47.2%	30.9%	52.4%	32.7%	36.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	45.3%	28.7%	47.6%	30.3%	21.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	45.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.3%	21.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	45.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.3%	21.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	45.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.3%	21.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	39.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	39.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	39.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	39.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	39.3%	28.7%	53.5%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	39.3%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	39.3%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	39.3%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	38.6%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	33.7%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	33.7%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	33.7%	30.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	33.7%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	33.7%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	33.7%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	33.7%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	33.7%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	35.5%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	37.4%	27.3%	30.3%	17.1%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	75.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	74.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗