KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

55%

46%

42%

12%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.8¢Risks 34.85u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.15u · EPS −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	6.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	23.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	30.5%	31.7%	0.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	18.9%	6.4%	10.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	30.3%	1.8%	22.2%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	19.5%	30.9%	26.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	16.2%	30.0%	14.8%	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	3.1%	33.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	20.8%	40.5%	19.0%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	19.0%	43.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	15.4%	37.3%	15.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	21.0%	39.7%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	22.5%	36.6%	22.5%	—	16.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	17.7%	45.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	10.3%	36.9%	17.6%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	22.0%	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	32.1%	36.1%	14.3%	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.3%	29.6%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	18.3%	28.9%	11.0%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	25.3%	6.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	27.6%	25.6%	14.4%	40.1%	11.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	26.9%	11.5%	—	7.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	78.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	76.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	76.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	73.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗