KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

24%

22%

21%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.3¢Risks 23.35u

EPSNO 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.65u · EPS −76.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.8%	14.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	19.4%	20.4%	0.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	10.6%	2.9%	5.5%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	18.4%	0.6%	12.5%	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	10.4%	18.4%	15.4%	—	11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	8.0%	17.3%	7.1%	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.1%	19.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.5%	24.8%	9.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	27.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	7.0%	21.6%	7.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	10.0%	23.1%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	10.7%	20.3%	10.7%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.6%	26.5%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.8%	19.7%	7.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	9.6%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	15.5%	18.3%	5.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.2%	13.5%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	12.7%	3.5%	0.0%	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.4%	10.2%	1.7%	—	2.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	11.2%	10.0%	4.6%	19.1%	3.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	10.3%	3.2%	—	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	78.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	75.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	75.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗