KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

24%

22%

21%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.3¢Risks 23.35u

EPSNO 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.65u · EPS −76.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:22+00:00	32.2%	10.1%	27.5%	22.0%	48.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	32.2%	10.1%	27.5%	22.0%	48.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	32.2%	10.1%	30.9%	22.0%	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	32.2%	10.1%	30.9%	22.0%	48.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	32.2%	10.1%	30.9%	22.0%	48.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	30.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	30.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	30.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	30.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	31.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	30.2%	10.1%	31.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	30.2%	5.2%	31.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	30.2%	5.2%	31.9%	28.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	41.2%	5.2%	31.9%	28.8%	32.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	41.2%	5.2%	31.9%	28.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:35+00:00	31.5%	3.8%	40.7%	30.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	31.5%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	31.5%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	31.5%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	43.2%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	27.9%	13.6%	38.5%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	27.9%	13.6%	38.5%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	27.9%	13.6%	38.5%	30.9%	27.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	28.6%	13.6%	38.5%	22.3%	27.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	28.6%	13.6%	38.5%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	38.5%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	38.5%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	38.5%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	28.6%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	27.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	25.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	25.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	25.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	41.3%	22.3%	25.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	41.3%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	27.3%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	27.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.3%	25.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	43.2%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	24.9%	12.3%	34.3%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	24.9%	12.3%	34.3%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	24.9%	12.3%	34.3%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	23.6%	12.3%	34.3%	21.8%	20.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	23.6%	12.3%	34.4%	21.8%	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	78.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	75.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	75.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗